Reflective equilibrium applied in practice: Identifying climate migration environmental drivers in Guatemala for the further prioritization of Loss and Damage strategies

Sammanfattning: The climate crisis has forced vulnerable countries in the Global South, such as Guatemala, to migrate. This study has two main focuses. The first one is identifying the region's most critical environmental mobility drivers. This is accomplished through a method called Reflective Equilibrium, which integrates justice, ethics, and community perspectives, allowing the connection of a community's judgments to its inherent principles so that the final judgments are consistent with each principle. Thus, this method enables reaching the first result of this work, which is identifying the two most critical environmental drivers in Guatemala while emphasizing the need to incorporate local voices and experiences to ensure fair and humane prioritization. The drivers identified are droughts and rainstorms. The second focus of this work proposes a framework that aims to guide decision-makers in which types of impacts arising from these drivers should be financially prioritized. The methods used for this investigation are a combination of literature review and risk assessment called the "standard model," providing a systemic approach to minimize, avert or address the identified environmental drivers. However, the need to include aspects of justice and rights in this prioritization is noted, as it is constantly neglected in public decisions. In addition, financing strategies are explored through the proposed framework in this study and can be applied beyond Guatemala, serving as a guide for prioritizing funding in other contexts where climate mobility drivers are a constant concern. The study suggests that Guatemalan decision- makers benefit from similar studies to provide evidence of the negative impacts of irresponsible activities by developed countries in their climate finance requests. The main aim of such an action would be to reach multilateral agreements that can be sought to safeguard fundamental human rights and protect Guatemala's natural resources by providing loss and damage funds. Recommendations for future research include estimating budgets for mitigation/adaptation strategies, assessing costs associated with the risks found here, and identifying thresholds for catastrophic events, specifically in Guatemala, thereby improving preparedness and response mechanisms.