Riskhantering i mikrovärldar – En experimentell studie av att använda spel för att studera riskhantering

Sammanfattning: It has been shown that it can be difficult to study decision making in a risk management context when traditional methods are used. An alternative to traditional methods is to use micro worlds. A certain type of decision making in the risk management context is about investments in capability which has been studied in this thesis. The aim of the project is divided into two parts, where the first part consists of developing a micro world and the second part is about using that micro world to study decision making regarding capability investments. More accurately, the second part is about studying how decision making regarding capability investments is affected by variation of probability of events and occurrence of capability assessments. The micro world MikroRisk has been developed in this thesis. MikroRisk is an example of how micro worlds can be used to study complex problems that require dynamic decision making. By using MikroRisk, it has been shown that it is possible to study how decision making regarding capability investments is affected by various situations in a micro world. The results of the micro world simulation in MikroRisk indicate that altered probability of events do not have any significant impact on decision making regarding capability investments. In relation to occurrence of capability assessments, the results show that performance is significantly increased by occurrence of capability assessments. As a result, it is concluded that capability assessments can be used to improve decision making.