Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Agricultural Practices in Kenya -Implications for Adaptation Strategies

Sammanfattning: Like other African countries, Kenya’ economy and food security is heavily dependent on agriculture. Climate change has led to variability in temperature and precipitation, and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, all of which can significantly impact crop productivity and food security in the long-term. Furthermore, water scarcity poses a critical challenge for Kenya, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where limited rainfall and increasing demand have led to diminishing water levels in rivers, lakes, and groundwater sources. This study assesses the impacts of climate change and water scarcity on agricultural practices in Kenya by modelling Agro-Climatic Zones (ACZ) based on climate and elevation and therefore predicting a shift in these zones based on future climate projections of the highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5). From the climate projections, it is predicted that mean annual temperature and precipitation will increase by 1.7°C and 34.7mm in the near future (2041-2050) and by 2.8°C and 120.2mm in the far future (2071-2080). The findings reveal that due to this change in climate, the ACZ’s of high to medium agricultural suitability are projected to decrease. Therefore, a country wide decrease of roughly 20% in production of some major crops are projected in the near-future while a further 10% can be anticipated in the far-future. The ACZ’s will further be affected by water scarcity as agriculture and water are linked. This study also links climate change to the major natural renewable water sources of Kenya which plays an important role in agriculture. Therefore, water scarcity is investigated by using natural renewable water sources and population as proxy. The results indicate that climate change is projected to affect these water sources mainly due to the precipitation change, however, coupled with a potential increase in population, this will exacerbate water stress in Kenya. And finally, through the study's findings, possible recommendations for policymakers for adaptation strategies are made, the main ones include more investments in the areas with high to medium crop suitability to maximize agricultural productivity and implementing laws and regulations for protecting Kenya’s main water sources.