Hur har Ukrainas export till EU-länder påverkats av inträdet i ett frihandelsområde?

Sammanfattning: By supporting the economy of Ukraine, the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine is thought to have played an important role in EU’s support during recent crises. The agreement was signed in 2014 and included a deep and comprehensive free trade area (DCFTA). By opening the markets, DCFTA is expected to increase exports between the countries and thereby lead to economic growth. Since the agreement was signed, there have not been any extensive evaluation on what effect the DCFTA has had on exports from Ukraine. The purpose of this thesis is to explore whether the agreement has increased Ukraine’s exports towards the EU and thereby whether it has lived up to its expectations. The effect on Ukraine’s exports is evaluated using a specified gravity model estimated with the Poisson-Pseudo- Maximum-Likelihood-method. The model uses gravity data from the period 2005 to 2018. The result showed that the free trade area has led to 29,2 percent increase in Ukraine’s Exports to the EU.