The Role of Technology Shifts in Urban Decarbonization Modelling : Scenario creation and implementation

Sammanfattning: This work includes modelling of decarbonization scenarios at the scale of an urban area, providing policy insights and a methodology focusing on introducing district heating and maintaining the existing gas distribution network in a case study. With a focus on reducing gas consumption in the residential and tertiary sectors, the research integrates scenario developments giving a methodology to develop district heating, requiring a careful balance in selecting the optimal scale for city-wide analysis. The study assesses the fate of existing gas networks. The development of district heating can affect the use of gas, particularly in residential or tertiary buildings. This thesis assesses potential use cases of existing gas networks by identifying certain criteria. Among them are industrial, tertiary or residential consumption, the presence of a district heating network, or the number of homes using individual gas heating. These criteria make it possible to define areas where the question of removing the gas distribution network can be raised, and other areas where the gas distribution network must be retained even if gas consumption falls sharply between 2019 and 2050. By reviewing the relevant literature, detailing the research questions and presenting a comprehensive methodology of scenario modelling, the thesis provides policy insights and a methodology to develop district heating at the scale of an urban area while addressing the future of existing gas infrastructure.