Temporal Projections of the Shoreline Displacement on Gotland

Sammanfattning: Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) impacts the displacement of the world’s coasts and shorelinedifferently due to it being contingent on local topographic and geological conditions. The island of Gotlandis located in the Fennoscandian Shield which lies at the intersection between GMSLR and post-glacialrebound (PGR), at rates that vary latitudinally and, in some areas, are at equal levels. Therefore, the future for the shorelines on the Swedish island can be uncertain due to the shoreline displacement being non-uniform. In this thesis, Själsö, a village located on the north-eastern coast of the island with a higher GMSLR than PGR rate was studied to analyse the shoreline displacement and temporally project thepermanent inundation of the study area. Through a more a deductive analysis, the inundation of the studyarea is projected to take place in approx. 4000 yr. This result was compared with the results from anothermore inductive analysis based on finding displacement rates of the study area through satellite and aerialimagery presenting a wide-ranging results based on two particular set of data, early and late displacementrates. The former inductive results yielded a range between 177-211 yr. while the latter inductive resultsyielded a range between 500-588 yr. The inductive results suggest that the GMSLR is not the onlycontributing factor but also accounts for short-term SLR fluctuations, with the later displacementprojections being slightly more accurate than the early when comparing their results with the deductivelycalculated projection that only takes the GMSLR into consideration.