Sökning: "Historical odds"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 15 uppsatser innehållade orden Historical odds.

  1. 1. Utilizing logistic regression to apply the ELO system in forecasting Premier League odds

    Kandidat-uppsats, KTH/Matematisk statistik

    Författare :Claudio Thegelström; [2023]
    Nyckelord :Premier League; ELO system; Historical odds; Logistic regression; Unbiased prediction; Premier League; ELO systemet; Historiska odds; Logistisk regression; Opartiska prediktioner;

    Sammanfattning : This thesis provides insights into the creation of a model for predicting odds in the Premier League. It illustrates how the ELO system and historical odds, in combination with Monte Carlo simulations, can be implemented through logistic regression to predict odds in an unbiased way. LÄS MER

  3. 2. Intermarriage Pattern Among Swedish Immigrants In the US in 1900 and 1910

    Master-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen

    Författare :Linda Schalling; [2023]
    Nyckelord :Intermarriage; Immigration; Age of Mass Migration; US Census; Sweden; Business and Economics;

    Sammanfattning : Intermarriage patterns are often referred to as a step in the social assimilation. However, previous research on is ambiguous in its result concerning differences in intermarriage pattern between genders. According to the theory intermarriage patterns are both influences by preferences and opportunities. LÄS MER

  4. 3. Forecasting Football Corner Odds: Statistical Modelling, Betting Strategies and Assessing Market Efficiency

    Master-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Matematisk statistik

    Författare :Gustav Pålsson; Marcus Laurens; [2023]
    Nyckelord :Mathematics and Statistics;

    Sammanfattning : Statistical modelling could be included in a betting strategy where the value of a bet is assessed by comparing model predictions and market odds. This thesis presents several models based on statistical learning methods for predicting the total number of corners in a football match. LÄS MER

  5. 4. Achievements of the Rational : A comparative argumentation analysis of witch hunts and conspiracy theories

    Master-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Statsvetenskapliga institutionen

    Författare :Emil Björk; [2023]
    Nyckelord :Rationality; Debate; Vocabulary; Human achievement; Normative development; QAnon; Witch hunts;

    Sammanfattning : According to philosopher Richard Rorty, rational debate and reasoning has limited impact on normative development of society. This seems to be at odds with modern design of democratic institutions, which are built to facilitate rational debate. Through a comparative study of two cases, the present paper examines Rorty’s theory. LÄS MER

  7. 5. Favourable Opportunities in Sports Betting - A Statistical Approach to Football Goals in the Premier League

    Kandidat-uppsats, KTH/Matematisk statistik

    Författare :Fredrik Lindau; Gustaf Carle; [2022]
    Nyckelord :statistics; Poisson distribution; Negative Binomial distribution; Bayesian regression; football; Premier League; sports betting; market efficiency; probability theory; estimations; statistik; Poisson fördelning; Negativ Binomial fördelning; Bayesiansk regression; fotboll; Premier League; betting; marknadseffektivitet; sannolikhetsteori; skattningar;

    Sammanfattning : The premise of this report is to delve into sports betting and whether favourable opportunities can be found, more specifically focusing on over and under odds for number of goals scored in football games of the Premier League. Using historical data from football matches several models are developed, the characteristics of goals warranting the use of probability based Poisson and Negative Binomial models, as well as Bayesian Poisson regression for goal predictions. LÄS MER