Vägtransport av farligt gods - beräkningsmodell för olycksfrekvens

Sammanfattning: A novel calculation model for estimating the frequency of accidents involving transport of dangerous goods on road links is proposed. It has been developed through a design process using background knowledge gathered through study and analysis of literature and through interviews with people having expertise within the field. The purpose of the model is to be used for risk analysis in societal planning in which the user estimates the frequency on local road sections considering the properties of the road at hand. Several design criteria were formulated which were to be met by the model in order to fulfill its purpose. The design process was ended with an evaluation which led to the conclusion that the purpose of the model is fulfilled. Transparency of the model and its development is a key factor in order to allow assessment of its reliability and allow further development of the model. Several development areas are proposed.