Stabil växelkurs och låg inflation - Inbördes oförenliga? En studie av implikationerna av en real appreciering

Sammanfattning: This paper examines a long run macroeconomic dilemma. This dilemma states that given a real appreciation, i.e. a continuous increase in the real exchange rate, an economy has two options open with respect to inflation and nominal exchange rate. Either the economy chooses a fixed exchange rate- regime but has to allow for a rising inflation. Or the economy can choose an inflation targeting- regime, but then has to allow for an appreciating nominal exchange rate. It can thus be seen that, given the exogenous shift in the real exchange rate, the economy must make a choice between its two endogenous variables, inflation and nominal exchange rate, and which one of them it wishes to hold constant. The paper explores this issue by measuring the exchange rates and inflation in a number of countries. One key result is that the dilemma is a real world phenomenon: faced by a real appreciation a country has to make a choice between low inflation and stable exchange rate. From these empirical results the paper goes on to investigate optimal policy choices regarding this dilemma, and it can be seen that countries facing this dilemma have some means to get by it and reach an elementary macroeconomic stability.